Monday, December 11, 2017
Tweets can help predict the outcome of soccer matches.New research shows that Twitter activity can help predict the result of soccer matches when combined with betting market prices.The tone of Twitter posts can predict when a team is more likely to win and soccer bets are mispriced, the study by the University of East Anglia (UEA) found. Researchers examined 13.8 million tweets -- an average of 5.2 tweets per second -- during an English Premier League (EPL) season. These were compared with in-play betting prices available at the same time on Betfair, the world's largest online betting exchange. They found that if the combined tone of tweets in a given second during a match was positive -- as measured by a micro-blogging dictionary -- then the team was more likely to win than the betting market prices implied. Tweets were particularly informative in the aftermath of goals and red cards, suggesting that social media content is particularly useful in assessing the implications and significance of new information. Social media is used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies.