A different virus has taken over the headlines now ,sharing the spotlight with African Swine Fever dominating the columns online and in the paper, the Corona virus disease 2019 (Covid-19).
The Corona virus does not affect swine but indirectly affects the swine business. There is one major difference between ASF and Covid-19, this is the fact that ASF leads to the death of virtually all pigs whereas Covid-19 would in most cases not be lethal, meaning that proper health care can play a role as well.
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Lessons learnt with regard to Covid-19 and ASF, lessons learnt are threefold.
First, it’s never too early to start thinking about a virus at the other side of the planet (look at this Danish example).
Secondly, let’s hope the millions pumped into the vaccine business to find a good Covid-19 vaccine somehow lead to a positive spin-off for pig vaccine development too.
Thirdly, countries reporting many outbreaks are not the ones having the largest problem – they in fact are the ones sharing the most information.
The striking similarities between Covid-19 and ASF. 1) The sudden panic . 2) The absence of a vaccine now. 3) Reporting of outbreaks.
Reporting the outbreaks is very important as there is a link between countries reporting and number of cases in such countries.
There are many websites around the world keeping us posted about the progress of the Covid-19 virus, about the number of people infected, the number of people that died of the virus and mortality percentages, showing interesting maps.
Interestingly, however concrete those numbers appear to be, it’s good to ask questions about the ‘why’ and ‘how’ behind those figures and that there is a parallel with African Swine Fever outbreaks which Pig Progress has been following intensively.
For example – can people be infected with Covid-19 yet barely notice it? If so, that would mean that the virus could be much more widespread than is actually reported, meaning that the real mortality figure is much lower.
Extremely interesting in this context I find is the way in which authorities have behaved in recent years with the reporting of ASF outbreaks.
It is important to understand that accurately reporting ASF outbreaks depends on a gigantic mix of components, just to name a few: 1)Availability of test kits.
2)Presence of necessary diagnostics infrastructure, including labs.
3)Availability of funding for affected farmers.
4)Availability of educated manpower to process all information.
5)Knowledge about the virus.
6)Sense of responsibility for others.
7)Cultural attitudes with regard to transparency in case of large problems.
8)Corruption.
9)Protection of export interests.
As regard to ASF, some countries have reported more outbreaks than others, in different frequencies, in different intensity, on different levels as well. Some did not report anything at all – or only occasional outbreaks.
Using the history of reporting , to have a reliable idea as to what numbers might be credible beyond doubt with regard to reporting corona virus, I’d first look at the countries that have been reporting ASF frequently, swiftly and without hesitation.
Adopted from pig progress.
